Sensing in the Shadows

Integrating autonomous and human intelligence for decision superiority in the Pacific

Modernizing Intelligence for Distributed Littoral Operations
In April 2023, in response to former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s 24-hour visit to Taiwan on 2 August 2022, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a large multi-domain military exercise near Taiwan, simulating a “joint firepower strike campaign” that integrated long-range rocket artillery, unmanned aerial vehicle reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Chinese military officials emphasized compressing the sensor-to-shooter timeline to neutralize the enemy’s response before maneuver. The exercise revealed more than strategic signaling; the drills demonstrated a maturing strike architecture designed for contested littoral terrain. Without faster detection, assessment, and action, Marine Corps units operating forward risk being neutralized before engagement.1

To maintain forward presence and decision advantage in such an environment, intelligence professionals must reassess how they support maneuver forces. Force Design 2030 compels Marine Corps intelligence professionals to reconsider operational methods in the Indo-Pacific’s maritime battlespace. The environment—defined by long-range precision fires, persistent ISR coverage, and a rapidly evolving adversary kill chain—has rendered legacy intelligence models obsolete. Decision superiority requires integrating autonomous ISR platforms and human-derived reporting within a low-signature, real-time network optimized for distributed maritime operations.2

Adversary Targeting and the Operational Mandate
China’s PLA has developed a reconnaissance-strike complex rooted in the concept of “informatized warfare,” which prioritizes identifying, fixing, and engaging targets more quickly than adversaries can respond.3 The PLA employs space-based sensors, coastal radar arrays, cyber and electronic warfare units, and unmanned systems across all domains. Each capability reinforces a doctrine designed to paralyze opponents through persistent surveillance and precision engagement, rather than attrition.4

Marine forces operating within the first and second island chains now face a threat that challenges traditional maneuver. Force Design 2030 directs Marines to persist in contested maritime spaces and to sense, assess, and act in real-time while minimizing exposure to detection.5 Intelligence structures that rely on slow processing, hierarchical workflows, or bandwidth-heavy systems no longer provide a responsive or survivable foundation for operational decision-making.

Fusion at the Tactical Edge
Autonomous ISR platforms—such as long-endurance drones, loitering munitions, and seabed sensors—now deliver capabilities once reserved for national-level assets. Many operate with onboard AI, autonomously detecting, classifying, and prioritizing maritime targets. Intelligence Marines at the tactical edge fuse machine-generated data with human-sourced inputs—such as coastal reconnaissance updates or partner force reporting—and augment them with open-source intelligence. Commercial tools like synthetic aperture radar and Automatic Identification System vessel tracking enable Marines to monitor maritime activity without relying on national tasking cycles or bandwidth-intensive systems. Chinese analysts have tracked U.S. Navy surface combatants using free satellite imagery and wake analysis alone.6 Open-source Automatic Identification System feeds have also revealed the Chinese research vessel Zhu Hai Yun operating within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan’s east coast.7 In contested littoral environments where Marines often operate without persistent SATCOM or responsive access to classified systems, fusing autonomous sensors with open-source intelligence allows forward units to build decision-quality situational awareness and act independently within the commander’s intent.

For example, a Marine littoral regiment conducting island-based surveillance in Luzon might integrate commercial satellite imagery, signals intercepts from unmanned surface vessels, and local reporting from partner forces to develop a near-real-time maritime picture. The resulting fused intelligence can cue fires or prompt asset repositioning—all without higher headquarters intervention.

The war in Ukraine provides instructive evidence. Ukrainian forces used commercial drones, open-source tools, and mobile apps to close the sensor-to-shooter loop.8 Improvisation and decentralization enabled responsive targeting against a more heavily resourced opponent. Pre-dating Ukraine, Azerbaijani forces in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict similarly leveraged ISR and loitering munitions to dismantle conventional formations, demonstrating that technological asymmetry, when paired with adaptive operators and mission command, can offset material inferiority. 9

Marine littoral regiments, as envisioned under Force Design 2030, require the fusion of autonomous ISR data with human-derived reporting to generate timely, actionable intelligence at the tactical edge. Tactical survivability and effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific depend on operating as semi-autonomous nodes within an integrated sensing and fires network. Intelligence sections must synthesize inputs from unmanned platforms, signal intercepts, and field observations into immediate tactical insight, independent of higher headquarters. Commanders must train Marines at the lowest echelons to operate as autonomous intelligence cells—fully empowered to support fires and maneuver without delay or dependency.

Signature Management as a Condition of Operations
Detection provides little advantage if it compromises the sensor’s survivability or cannot be acted upon rapidly and securely. A Concept for Stand-In Forces emphasizes that forward elements must extend the Joint Force’s reach while avoiding detection and classification.10 To remain survivable and effective in contested environments, intelligence elements must adopt low-signature sensing, passive collection, burst-transmission protocols, and electronic deception as routine features of the collection cycle.

Intelligence planners must design and employ autonomous systems with electromagnetic discipline. Operational value depends not only on what a platform can detect, but on whether it can do so without emitting a detectable signature or degrading friendly operations. Collection teams must train for communications-denied environments by mastering concealment, terrain masking, route selection, and sensor camouflage. Electromagnetic silence must become the tactical default—not the exception. Intelligence frameworks must abandon assumptions of persistent, high-bandwidth network access and instead prioritize survivability, latency management, and deception.

From Innovation to Doctrine
Marine Corps modernization must link technological development with doctrinal reform. While Force Design 2030 and the Stand-In Forces concept both emphasize decentralized execution and forward ISR capability, the current doctrine does not yet fully account for sensor saturation, cognitive overload, or the role of artificial intelligence in shaping battlefield awareness. Marine Corps doctrine affirms that intelligence is inseparable from operations—not subordinate—but functioning as a coequal warfighting function.11 Modernization must redefine intelligence’s role in maneuver and operational decision making—not merely focus on acquiring ISR systems. Intelligence must maneuver—not in isolation but as a fully integrated force enabler capable of shaping tempo, anticipatory action, and lethal fires.

Modernizing intelligence requires pushing ISR capabilities below the battalion level and training Marines across all occupational fields to collect information, conduct basic analysis, and report in support of maneuver. Intelligence responsibilities must become standard battlefield functions rather than duties confined to the intelligence community. Without an updated doctrine that reflects decentralized execution, new ISR platforms and analytic tools risk being misused or sidelined. When operational concepts lag behind available capabilities, tactical units lack the structure for effective employment. Gaining and maintaining advantage in contested maritime environments demands a doctrine that treats ISR as integral to maneuver—a core combat function, not a supporting task.

Conclusion: Intelligence as Maneuver
Marine Corps intelligence modernization must reflect the operational realities of the Pacific theater—prolonged exposure to peer ISR, contested littorals, and degraded communications. Gaining decision advantage requires integrating autonomous platforms with human-derived reporting in ways optimized for speed, dispersion, and electromagnetic discipline. Procuring ISR systems without adjusting doctrine, force structure, or training pipelines will yield technical capacity without tactical consequence. Intelligence overmatch depends on institutional commitment to treating intelligence as maneuver—training Marines to collect, assess, and act at the tactical edge, with the doctrinal authority to do so at the point of need.

>Sgt McCue is an Intelligence Analyst in the Executive Support Section, Information Intelligence Division, Office of the Deputy Commandant for Information. He has supported operations in the CENTCOM and INDOPACOM theaters, including deployments with SPMAGTF-CR-CC 19.2, the 31st MEU, and a Joint Task Force in Iraq. He is currently completing a Bachelor of Science in Legal Studies. 

Notes

1. Kevin Kusumoto, “China Concludes Its Largest Military Drills Near Taiwan,” TRADOC G-2, October 10, 2024, https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/product/china-concludes-its-largest-military-drills-near-taiwan; and James E. Fanell, “China: Growing and Going to Sea,” Proceedings 149, No. 5 (2023), https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/may/china-growing-and-going-sea.

3. Gen. David H. Berger, Force Design 2030 Annual Update (Washington, DC: 2023), https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Docs/Force_Design_2030_Annual_Update_June_2023.pdf.

4. Kitsch Liao, “Informatized Wars: How China Thinks About Cyber,” American Enterprise Institute, March 15, 2022, https://www.aei.org/articles/informatized-wars-how-china-thinks-about-cyber/.

5. J. Michael Dahm, China C4ISR and Counter Intervention (Arlington: Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, March 2024), https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/J.Michael_Dahm_Testimony.pdf.

6. Force Design 2030 Annual Update.

7. Christopher McFadden, “China Can Track U.S. Navy with Public Satellite Imagery,” Interesting Engineering, July 16, 2024, https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-tracks-us-navy-via-free-satellite-images.

8. Christina Lu, “Chinese research ships increase activity near Taiwan,” Financial Times, August 30, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/0dfb94d7-e140-4d6c-97b9-18ec410d6a7c.

9. Harry Halem, “Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike,” Parameters 53, No. 4 (Winter 2023–24), https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/4/.

10. Shaan Shaikh and Wes Rumbaugh, “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Lessons for Future Warfare,” CSIS, December 8, 2020, https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-missile-war-nagorno-karabakh-lessons-future-strike-and-defense.

11. Headquarters Marine Corps, A Concept for Stand-In Forces (Washington, DC: 2021), cited in Force Design 2030 Annual Update.

12. Headquarters Marine Corps, MCDP 2, Intelligence (Washington, DC: April 2023). (Foreword by Gen. Charles C. Krulak, USMC (Ret.), dated June 7, 1997).

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