Assessing where quantum can strengthen the stand in forces
Stand-in forces were conceived to solve a demanding operational problem: How to persist inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone while continuously contributing to fleet and Joint Force operations. Success requires more than survival. Stand-in forces must find without being found, navigate when familiar positioning systems are degraded, exchange trusted information across contested networks, and make timely decisions despite surveillance, deception, electronic attack, and uncertainty. These are enduring operational challenges. The technologies available to address them will change, but the challenges will remain.
Quantum technologies offer increasingly credible opportunities to strengthen several of these functions. Advances in precision sensing, timing, navigation, communications security, and computing are progressing toward military applications, but their relevance should be judged by the operational problems they help solve rather than their scientific novelty. For force developers, the important question is therefore not simply what quantum technologies can do, but where they can enhance the capabilities future stand-in forces will require. This article examines four such challenges: finding without being found, navigating without GPS, communicating without compromise, and deciding faster without deciding poorly.1
The year 2033 provides a deliberate force development horizon. Decisions made now about experimentation, education, acquisition, and operational concepts will shape what Marines can employ seven years from today. This article therefore assesses where current evidence supports action now while distinguishing among technologies according to their scientific maturity, engineering progress, and prospects for military adoption by 2033. The argument is not that quantum will solve the challenges facing stand-in forces. It is that selected quantum technologies are sufficiently mature and operationally relevant to warrant focused Marine Corps experimentation and investment now.2
Operational Challenge 1: Finding Without Being Found
The defining characteristic of stand-in forces is not simply that they operate inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone, but that they persist there while contributing to fleet and Joint Force operations. Their value depends upon sustaining maritime reconnaissance, preserving target custody, and supporting decision making while complicating an adversary’s ability to detect, classify, track, and target them. Reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance are therefore continuous, mutually supporting functions. The challenge is not merely to survive forward, but to find while making the adversary’s effort to find increasingly difficult.
That contest is becoming more complex. Potential adversaries can integrate satellites, unmanned systems, passive radio frequency collection, cyber reconnaissance, commercial remote sensing, and information fusion into reconnaissance strike architectures capable of correlating signatures across multiple domains. A stand-in force cannot therefore rely upon defeating a single sensor or remaining invisible. It must manage and, when advantageous, manipulate its physical, electromagnetic, cyber, and human signatures while continuing to collect, correlate, and communicate information useful to the fleet and Joint Force.
Quantum-enabled precision measurement can strengthen this contest by improving what a distributed force can sense and how precisely it can determine where and when an observation occurred. Quantum clocks, inertial sensors, gravimeters, magnetometers, and emerging atom-based electromagnetic sensors exploit quantum phenomena to measure time, acceleration, rotation, gravity, magnetic fields, and electromagnetic energy with exceptional precision. These capabilities can improve positioning, navigation, and timing when GPS is degraded; increase the accuracy with which distributed sensors and observations are geolocated and synchronized; and expand opportunities for passive sensing.3 Integrated with conventional sensors and existing reconnaissance architectures, they can increase confidence in weak or ambiguous observations without requiring stand-in forces to expose themselves through additional active emissions.4
The operational advantage is cumulative rather than revolutionary. A distributed stand-in force operating under emissions control could maintain more accurate navigation and synchronization during GPS disruption, correlate observations from dispersed sensors with greater confidence, distinguish patterns from isolated reports, and preserve target custody longer. Quantum sensing will not make Marines invisible or eliminate uncertainty. It can make persistent reconnaissance more precise and resilient while reducing dependence on external signals that an adversary can jam, spoof, or exploit. The challenge is reciprocal: increasingly sensitive quantum sensors could also improve an adversary’s ability to detect stand-in-force signatures, reinforcing the importance of signature management, deception, dispersion, and mobility in the reconnaissance /counter-reconnaissance contest. For a force attempting to find without being found, those advantages matter.
For force developers, the implication is straightforward. Quantum sensing and precision measurement have advanced enough to warrant focused experimentation—now. Recent military developments reinforce that judgment as quantum timing and sensing move from laboratory demonstrations toward field trials and, in selected cases, production quantities. The objective should not be to replace existing reconnaissance systems, but to determine where quantum clocks and sensors can increase the resilience, precision, and persistence of the reconnaissance architecture Marines will require in 2033. Continued progress in size, weight, power, ruggedization, and integration will determine which technologies become expeditionary capabilities, but waiting for complete technological maturity before experimenting would surrender valuable time to learn how to employ them.5
Stand-in forces cannot persist inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone without trusted positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT). Movement, sensor geolocation, logistics, target reporting, precision fires, and synchronization all depend upon knowing where forces are and when events occur. For decades, GPS has provided much of this capability, but future operations must assume periods of degradation, denial, deception, or deliberate nonuse. The challenge is therefore larger than navigating without GPS. Stand-in forces must preserve sufficiently accurate PNT to maneuver, synchronize distributed operations, maintain target custody, and contribute reliably to fleet and joint force operations.
Adversaries can attack that confidence through jamming, spoofing, cyber operations, and attacks against space-based capabilities, while emissions control may constrain a force’s use of external signals. The consequences extend beyond navigation. Position or timing errors can degrade sensor correlation, target location, precision fires, logistics, and the commander’s confidence in operational information. Resilient PNT therefore requires an architecture that can draw upon multiple independent and complementary sources rather than depend upon continuous access to any single system.
Quantum timing and inertial sensing can make this PNT architecture significantly more resilient. Advanced atomic clocks can maintain precise time for longer periods without external synchronization, while quantum inertial sensors measure acceleration and rotation with sufficient sensitivity to reduce the positional error that accumulates as an inertial navigation system operates without external updates.6 Combined with conventional inertial systems, terrain and celestial navigation, signals of opportunity, and periodic trusted GPS access when available, these capabilities can extend the time a distributed force operates confidently without relying upon vulnerable external navigation signals.7 For stand-in forces, that means more than knowing where they are. More resilient PNT improves the ability to geolocate observations, synchronize dispersed sensors and formations, preserve target custody, maneuver under emissions control, and integrate accurately with fleet and Joint Force operations.
For force developers, the objective should not be to replace GPS. Instead, the Marine Corps must build a PNT architecture that continues functioning when GPS does not. Quantum clocks and inertial sensors are sufficiently mature to warrant focused Marine Corps experimentation toward that objective now. Important engineering challenges remain, particularly size, weight, power, environmental sensitivity, and integration into expeditionary systems, but current development programs demonstrate credible progress toward deployable capabilities.8 By 2033, the advantage may not be a “quantum navigation system.” Rather, it may be a stand-in force that can operate longer, with greater confidence and fewer external dependencies, when an adversary expects the loss of GPS to impose paralysis.
Operational Challenge 3: Communicating Without Compromise
Stand-in forces derive much of their value from contributing timely, trusted information to the fleet and Joint Force. Distributed reconnaissance, target custody, and maritime campaigning require information to move great distances among sensors, commanders, and shooters. Yet every transmission can create vulnerability. Radio-frequency emissions may reveal friendly locations, communications can be intercepted or disrupted, and degraded networks can isolate distributed forces when their information matters most. The challenge is therefore not maximizing connectivity. It is exchanging trusted information while minimizing the signatures and vulnerabilities created by remaining connected inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone.
That tension will intensify as adversaries improve electronic warfare, cyber operations, signals intelligence, and electromagnetic sensing. Stand-in forces must therefore communicate selectively while protecting the confidentiality, integrity, authenticity, and timeliness of the information they exchange. Predictable network behavior, unnecessary transmissions, or excessive data can increase both the electromagnetic signature of a distributed force and the available opportunities to disrupt or exploit it. Communications discipline and emissions control remain fundamental, but the underlying information architecture must also become more secure and resilient.
Quantum technologies can strengthen the information architecture in several ways. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) provides the clearest near-term opportunity. Post-quantum cryptography uses new mathematical algorithms designed to resist attacks from both conventional and future quantum computers and can be incorporated into existing digital networks without requiring quantum communications hardware.9 Quantum-enabled timing can improve synchronization across distributed networks and sensors, while quantum random number generators can provide high-quality randomness for cryptographic applications.10 These technologies do not make transmissions undetectable or prevent electronic attack. They strengthen the security and integrity of the information moving through networks that Marines must continue to protect through sound communications discipline.
For force developers, PQC presents a different challenge from many emerging technologies because transition is already underway. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized its first post-quantum cryptographic standards in 2024, and U.S. policy directs federal systems toward quantum-resistant cryptography. Recent NATO analysis similarly identifies migration toward post-quantum cryptography as an operational requirement for protecting future command and control architectures and preserving interoperability across allied networks.11 The Marine Corps therefore does not need to predict whether quantum will affect communications security by 2033. It needs to prepare for a security architecture already changing because of that prospect. Experimentation should focus on integrating quantum-resistant security, resilient timing, and other mature quantum-enabled capabilities into distributed communications while preserving emissions discipline and interoperability. For stand-in forces, communicating without compromise will remain impossible in an absolute sense. The objective is more practical: exchange the information necessary to fight while denying an adversary unnecessary opportunities to detect, disrupt, deceive, or exploit the force.
Operational Challenge 4: Deciding Faster Without Deciding Poorly
Information possesses little operational value until it informs a decision. The preceding challenges help stand-in forces understand the environment, preserve trusted positioning, navigation, and timing, and exchange trusted information. Commanders must turn those advantages into decisions, often under severe time pressure and against adversaries employing deception, cyber operations, and electronic warfare. The challenge therefore is not simply deciding faster. It is deciding faster without deciding poorly.
That task becomes harder as distributed sensors, unmanned systems, commercial data, intelligence reporting, and networked command and control generate more information than commanders and staffs can readily absorb. Adversaries can compound the problem through deception, manipulated information, and deliberate overload. Decision advantage therefore depends not upon processing everything, but upon identifying what matters, testing assumptions, evaluating alternatives, and transforming trusted information into action before opportunities disappear.
Quantum computing offers a less mature but potentially important contribution to the challenge of making better decisions within compressed timelines. Its most credible military applications by 2033 are unlikely to involve quantum computers accompanying stand-in forces or replacing commanders. Rather, quantum and hybrid quantum-classical computing may begin supporting specialized analytical problems at reach-back, fleet, joint, or enterprise levels. Optimization, logistics, scheduling, simulation, and resource allocation are among the problem classes being investigated because some become extraordinarily difficult as the number of variables and possible solutions grows.12 As quantum systems begin to demonstrate validated computational advantage on selected problems, the remaining military question is whether that advantage can translate to operationally relevant applications. If it can, quantum methods could eventually allow staffs to examine alternatives that are too computationally demanding to evaluate within useful timelines today.13
For stand-in forces, the value would reside in the resulting analysis rather than the location of the computer. Quantum-assisted optimization could eventually help supporting staffs examine sustainment routes, allocation of scarce resources, force positioning, or other complex alternatives and return better options to commanders operating forward. Current Navy research also illustrates that progress toward useful quantum computation will depend not only on hardware, but on algorithms that reduce the computational resources required to solve selected problems. This would not make command automatic or remove uncertainty. Nor does current evidence justify assuming quantum computing will outperform advanced classical computing across military problems by 2033. Its potential lies in improving selected analytical processes where computational complexity constrains the speed or breadth of useful analysis.
For force developers, that uncertainty argues for experimentation rather than waiting or exaggerating what quantum computing can deliver. The Marine Corps should identify operational problems whose computational characteristics make them plausible candidates for quantum or hybrid methods, establish classical benchmarks, and test whether emerging systems produce useful advantage.14 By 2033, quantum computing may remain primarily a supporting capability rather than a tactical one. That distinction does not diminish its potential value. A better option delivered to a commander in time to act can create operational advantage regardless of where the computation occurred.
Preparing for 2033
Stand-in forces were conceived to persist inside an adversary’s weapons engagement zone while continuously contributing to fleet and Joint Force operations. Doing so requires Marines to find without being found, navigate when GPS is unavailable, exchange trusted information across contested networks, and make sound decisions before opportunities disappear. Technology alone will not solve these challenges. But technology can materially improve the ability of Marines to meet them, and current evidence indicates that selected quantum capabilities can contribute.
The evidence also supports different levels of confidence. Quantum sensing, precision timing, resilient positioning and navigation, and post-quantum cryptography are advancing along credible paths toward greater military application through 2033. Quantum computing remains less certain, but its potential contribution to specialized optimization and analytical problems warrants experimentation. The implication is not that the Marine Corps should pursue quantum indiscriminately. It is that force developers should identify the capabilities with demonstrated operational promise, test them against demanding military problems, and invest where experimentation demonstrates meaningful advantage.
That work should begin now. The capabilities available to Marines in 2033 will reflect decisions about experimentation, acquisition, education, doctrine, and operational concepts made years earlier. Waiting for quantum technologies to mature before determining how Marines might employ them would surrender the time needed to experiment, fail, adapt, and integrate those that prove useful. The Marine Corps does not need certainty about the quantum future to act. It needs sufficient evidence to recognize opportunity and the institutional discipline to turn promising technology into warfighting advantage.
Preparing for 2033 begins now.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
>Col Dunne (Ret.) is a recently retired, three-decade Marine. This article was inspired by his personal experience, having twice undergone the unusual transition from second-in-command to interim first-in-command, and back to second-in-command. It was further informed by his recent work supporting the Chief of Staff Association and their examination of leadership transitions in higher education and its application across professions.
Notes
1. National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee, Quantum Networking: Findings and Recommendations for Growing American Leadership (Washington, DC: National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee, 2024); Quantum Economic Development Consortium, Quantum Technology for Securing Financial Messaging (2024); and National Institute of Standards and Technology, “NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards,” August 13, 2024. Collectively, these sources demonstrate that quantum technologies are advancing unevenly across sensing, networking, communications security, and computing, supporting an operational assessment by capability rather than treating “quantum” as a single technology.
2. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Science & Tech Spotlight: Quantum Sensors, GAO-25-107876 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, January 2025), 1–2. The GAO identifies quantum sensors as “the most mature form of quantum technology” and notes that they can improve measurements of time and position, potentially enabling navigation when GPS is unavailable or degraded. At the same time, GAO cautions that reliability, cost-effectiveness, technology transfer, workforce limitations, and access to specialized components remain obstacles to broader deployment. These distinctions reinforce an important force-development point: Quantum technologies should not be treated as a single capability progressing toward maturity at a common rate. Sensing and positioning, navigation, and timing applications may present nearer-term opportunities for experimentation and transition, while other quantum applications remain on different and generally less certain developmental trajectories.
3. Michael Saywell et al., “Quantum Sensor for a Future Navigation System,” Science Advances 10, no. 20 (2024); U.S. Department of Defense, “DOD Should Focus on Short-Term Goals in Quantum Science,” March 12, 2020. Saywell and colleagues demonstrated a cold-atom inertial sensor designed around navigation requirements, while the Department has specifically identified quantum clocks, inertial sensors, and magnetometers as nearer-term priorities for precision timing and navigation. Together, these developments support treating quantum-precision measurement as an emerging military capability rather than a purely theoretical application.
4. John Kitching, James P. Shaffer, and Dmitry Budker, “Atom-Based Quantum Sensing of Electromagnetic Fields,” Optica 12, no. 12 (December 2025): 2008–22, https://doi.org/10.1364/OPTICA.569334; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Manufacturing Technologies for Rydberg-Based Atomic Sensors (MANTRAS),” SBIR/STTR Topic DPA26BZ03-DV011, 2026. Atom-based sensors can detect electromagnetic fields across broad frequency ranges, while DARPA is pursuing ruggedized, low-size, weight, and power Rydberg-based systems for wideband radio-frequency sensing. These developments suggest potential applications in passive electromagnetic reconnaissance and spectrum awareness, although laboratory performance does not establish expeditionary military utility. The sensing advantage is also reciprocal: The GAO identifies the potential use of quantum sensors to detect stealth technologies. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Science & Tech Spotlight: Quantum Sensors, GAO-25-107876 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, January 2025), 1–2. For stand-in forces, both opportunities warrant experimentation before 2033: what quantum sensors may allow Marines to detect, and how increasingly capable adversary sensors could affect friendly signature management and counter-reconnaissance.
5. Dongyoun Cho, “From Sea Trials to Series Production: The Uneven Rise of Military Quantum Sensing,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 7, 2026; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, FY 2026 President’s Budget: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation, Defense-Wide, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2025), 97; U.S. Department of Defense, “Multi-Service Team Wins $45 Million Research Award to Pursue Quantum-Based Precision Targeting,” June 13, 2023. DARPA’s H6 program is developing a small, low-power, deployable tactical clock intended to maintain precise timing without GPS, with realistic environment demonstrations planned in FY 2026. Separately, the Department’s CLAWS effort is investing $45 million to transition quantum-related technologies toward precision military applications. Recent military developments provide additional evidence of movement from laboratory research toward field experimentation and production. IISS reports distributed Royal Navy trials of cold atom timing under simulated navigation disruption and a U.S. order for 125 optical atomic clocks. These programs provide concrete evidence that miniaturization, deployability, and military integration are active engineering objectives, not merely projected requirements.
6. Michael Saywell et al., “Quantum Sensor for a Future Navigation System,” Science Advances 10, no. 20 (2024); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, FY 2026 President’s Budget: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation, Defense-Wide, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2025), 97. Quantum-inertial navigation seeks to exploit highly sensitive measurements of acceleration and rotation to reduce inertial drift, while DARPA’s H6 program is developing a small, low-power tactical clock capable of maintaining precise time without GPS. These efforts address two principal sources of PNT degradation during extended periods without trusted external updates.
7. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, DoD Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Science and Technology Strategy (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2025), 8–17; U.S. Department of Defense, “AUKUS Defense Ministers Meeting Joint Statement,” December 1, 2023. The Department’s PNT strategy emphasizes resilient architectures built from complementary technologies rather than a single GPS substitute. The AUKUS’s Resilient and Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Technologies and Quantum Positioning, Navigation, and Timing initiatives provide additional evidence that defense organizations are actively pursuing quantum sensors as components of GPS-resilient navigation architectures.
8. Dongyoun Cho, “From Sea Trials to Series Production: The Uneven Rise of Military Quantum Sensing,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, September 7, 2026; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, FY 2026 President’s Budget, 97; and Saywell et al., “Quantum Sensor for a Future Navigation System.” Laboratory sensitivity alone does not produce an expeditionary capability. Current programs increasingly emphasize smaller systems, reduced power requirements, robustness, and operation outside controlled laboratory environments. Recent military trials provide additional evidence of that progression. IISS reports Royal Navy testing of distributed cold atom timing across ships, shore radars, and rebroadcast nodes while simulating navigation signal jamming and spoofing, as well as U.S. programs moving selected quantum timing devices toward production quantities. Those engineering efforts and operational developments support experimentation now while also cautioning against assuming that every demonstrated quantum sensor will be suitable for distributed Marine operations by 2033.
9. National Institute of Standards and Technology, “NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards,” August 13, 2024; National Institute of Standards and Technology, FIPS 203: Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, August 2024); National Institute of Standards and Technology, FIPS 204: Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard (Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, August 2024). Unlike quantum-key distribution, PQC does not require quantum hardware or dedicated quantum links. It replaces vulnerable public-key algorithms with mathematical schemes designed to withstand attacks by both classical and quantum computers, making migration possible within existing network architectures.
10. National Institute of Standards and Technology, “NIST Chip Generates Quantum Random Numbers at Record-Breaking Speed,” April 15, 2025; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, FY 2026 President’s Budget: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation, Defense-Wide, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2025), 97. Quantum random-number generation derives unpredictability from quantum processes rather than deterministic algorithms, while advanced atomic clocks can preserve precise timing when external synchronization is degraded. These capabilities address cryptographic entropy and synchronization, respectively; neither substitutes for secure radios, low-probability-of-detection waveforms, or emissions control.
11. National Security Memorandum 10, “Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems,” May 4, 2022; National Institute of Standards and Technology, “NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards,” August 13, 2024, and Nakul Nayyar and Matthias Rößler, “Quantum Technologies for NATO Air and Space Power: Military Risks, Operational Implications, and the Imperative for Allied Action,” Joint Air Power Competence Centre Journal, no. 42 (September 2026). The NSM-10 directed migration toward quantum-resistant cryptography, and NIST’s finalized standards moved PQC from research toward implementation. Ongoing NATO analysis further identifies PQC migration as an operational requirement and emphasizes the challenge of maintaining interoperability as legacy, hybrid, and quantum-resistant systems coexist across allied networks. The relevant force-development question is therefore increasingly how and when to integrate quantum-resistant cryptography, rather than whether such a transition will eventually be necessary.
12. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2019), 69–106; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Quantum Benchmarking Initiative,” 2025. Quantum computers approach computation differently from classical machines and are not inherently faster for every problem. Optimization, simulation, and related problem classes remain important research areas, but practical military utility depends upon demonstrating computational advantage on problems of operationally relevant size and complexity.
13. Simon Martiel et al., “Sampling Hard Circuits with Verifiably High Fidelity,” arXiv:2607.25941 (July 28, 2026); Eyal Leviatan et al., “Resolving Structure in Prethermal Floquet Dynamics with Precision Quantum Computation,” arXiv:2607.24937 (July 27, 2026). Recent experiments provide increasingly credible evidence that quantum processors can perform and validate selected computations beyond the practical reach of leading classical methods. These results are important demonstrations of computational advantage, but they do not establish operational advantage for military optimization, logistics, targeting, or decision support. For the Marine Corps, the relevant question is therefore not quantum advantage in the abstract, but whether quantum methods can produce useful, timely, and trustworthy results for operationally relevant problems better than the best available classical alternatives.
14. Meaningful evaluation of quantum computing requires comparison against the best available classical methods, not merely demonstration that a quantum processor can execute a problem. This standard becomes more difficult as quantum systems enter regimes where exact classical verification is itself computationally impractical. Recent experiments have addressed this problem through techniques including error-detected fidelity certification, controlled error mitigation, comparison across quantum hardware platforms, and continued benchmarking against competing classical approaches. See Simon Martiel et al., “Sampling Hard Circuits with Verifiably High Fidelity,” arXiv:2607.25941 (July 28, 2026); IBM, “Quantum Advantage Tracker: The Race to Advantage,” February 23, 2026, and Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, “Navy Researchers Release Groundbreaking Software, Slashing Quantum Computational Costs by as Much as 99%,” September 1, 2026. The Navy’s QGeo research further illustrates the role of algorithm design in reducing quantum computational costs, although such efficiencies do not themselves establish operational advantage. For military experimentation, problem selection, classical benchmarking, and result validation should therefore be treated as inseparable requirements. A quantum approach should be considered operationally valuable only when it produces a useful and trustworthy result for a relevant problem better, faster, or otherwise more effectively than the best practical classical alternative.







